5-Dec-2019: CO2 emission trend reflects India slowdown

A new study shows the growth in India’s carbon dioxide emissions this year is likely to be considerably lower than in the last few years. The Global Carbon Project, which puts out emission estimates for across the world every year, has said India’s emissions in 2019 (2.6 billion tonnes or gigatonnes) was likely to be only 1.8 per cent higher than in 2018. This is significantly lower than the 8% growth that India showed last year and the more-than-5% average growth over the last ten years. The growth in global carbon dioxide emissions too is likely to come down this year, to just 0.6% over last year.

The lower growth in CO2 emissions, though desirable, is only a positive fallout of the slowdown in the Indian economy. Economic growth has been consistently weakening over the last few quarters, leading to reduction in activities that cause emissions.

Indian CO2 emissions have grown at 5.1 per cent per year over the last decade, but growth is expected to be much weaker in 2019, at 1.8 per cent (range 0.7 to 3.7 per cent). Weak economic growth in India has led to slower growth in oil and natural gas consumption. With a weakening economy, growth in India’s generation of electricity has slowed from 6 per cent per year to under 1 per cent in 2019, despite electrification of villages adding to potential demand. Moreover, the addition of a very wet monsoon led to very high hydropower generation and a decline in generation from coal.

Economic slowdown has been blamed for a lower emission growth in the rest of the world as well, and also in China, the world’s largest emitter.

The numbers put out by Global Carbon Project are estimates, and not official. But these offer important indicators to global trends in carbon dioxide emissions in near-real time. Collection, collation and calculation of emissions take considerable time, and in any case, official numbers are put out by the governments. In India’s case, the most recent official numbers relating to all kinds of emissions pertain to 2014. Those were submitted to the UN climate body just last year.

According to those numbers, India’s carbon dioxide emissions in 2014 was 1.99 billion tonnes, while its total greenhouse gas emissions, which include other greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide, was 2.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

The Global Carbon Project estimates the carbon dioxide emissions in 2019 alone to be about 2.6 billion tonnes. They do not give the estimates of emissions of other greenhouse gases. The near-real time estimates put out by the project are based on datasets that monitor production and consumption trends of key indicators like electricity, oil and gas, cement, and chemicals and fertilisers.

6-Dec-2018: India third largest contributor to carbon emission

Global carbon emissions are set to hit an all-time high of 37.1 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2018, according to researchers at the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the Global Carbon Project.

India, the third-highest contributor, is projected to see emissions rise by 6.3% from 2017. The 2.7% projected global rise in 2018 has been driven by appreciable growth in coal use for the second year in a row, and sustained growth in oil and gas use.

This week, representatives from more than 190 countries have begun discussions at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 24) in Katowice, Poland, on ways to equitably cut carbon emissions.

CO2 emissions have now risen for a second year, after three years of little to no growth from 2014 to 2016. The rise in 2017 was 1.6%.

The 10 biggest emitters in 2018 are China, U.S., India, Russia, Japan, Germany, Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Canada. The EU as a region of countries ranks third. China’s emissions accounted for 27% of the global total, having grown an estimated 4.7% in 2018 and reaching a new all-time high.

Emissions in the U.S., which has withdrawn from its commitment to the Paris Agreement, account for 15% of the global total, and look set to have grown about 2.5% in 2018 after several years of decline.

Limiting global warming to the 2015 Paris Agreement goal of keeping the global temperature increase this century to well below 2°C, would need carbon dioxide emissions to decline by 50% by 2030 and reach net zero by about 2050.

Though coal use contributed to the rise in 2018 from last year, it still remains below its historical high in 2013 but may exceed that if current growth continues.

The Global Carbon Project

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) integrates knowledge of greenhouse gases for human activities and the Earth system. Its projects include global budgets for three dominant greenhouse gases — carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide — and complementary efforts in urban, regional, cumulative, and negative emissions.

The Global Carbon Project is a Global Research Project of Future Earth and a research partner of the World Climate Research Programme. It was formed to work with the international science community to establish a common and mutually agreed knowledge base to support policy debate and action to slow down and ultimately stop the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The overwhelming realization that anthropogenic climate change is a reality has focused the attention of the scientific community, policymakers and the general public on the rising atmospheric concentrations of the main greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). The GCP has approached this challenge by focusing comprehensively on the global biogeochemical cycles which govern these three greenhouse gases, including their natural and human drivers, and opportunities for low carbon pathways.

Attempts through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, first with its Kyoto Protocol and now with the Paris Agreement, are underway to stabilize the climate system which requires achieving a balance between sources and sinks of greenhouse gases.

The Global Carbon Project was established in 2001 by a shared partnership between the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and Diversitas. This partnership constituted the Earth Systems Science Partnership (ESSP) which subsequently evolved into Future Earth.

Goals

The scientific goal of the Global Carbon Project is to develop a complete picture of the global carbon cycle, including both its biophysical and human dimensions together with the interactions and feedbacks between them. This will be:

• Patterns and Variability: What are the current geographical and temporal distributions of the major pools and fluxes in the global carbon cycle?
• Processes and Interactions: What are the control and feedback mechanisms - both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic - that determine the dynamics of the carbon cycle?
• Carbon Management: What are the dynamics of the carbon-climate-human system into the future, and what points of intervention and windows of opportunity exist for human societies to manage this system?

Mandate

• To develop a research framework for integration of the biogeochemical, biophysical and human components of the global carbon cycle, including the development of data-model fusion schemes, and design of cost effective observational and research networks.
• To synthesize current understanding of the global C cycle and provide rapid feedback to the research and policy communities, and general public.
• To develop tools and conceptual frameworks to couple the biophysical and human dimensions of the carbon cycle.
• To provide a global coordinating platform for regional/national carbon programs to improve observation network design, data standards, information and tools transfer, and timing of campaigns and process-based experiments.
• To strengthen the broad carbon research programs of nations and regions, and those of more disciplinary projects in IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, and IGCO through better coordination, articulation of goals, and development of conceptual frameworks.
• To develop a small number of new research initiatives that are feasible within a 3-5 year time framework on difficult and highly interdisciplinary problems of the carbon cycle.
• To foster new carbon research in regions (e.g., tropical Asia) that will provide better constrains of continental and global carbon budgets through promoting partnerships between institutions and exchange visits.

10 Years of Activity

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) was established in 2001 in recognition of the scientific challenge and critical importance of the carbon cycle for Earth's sustainability. Ten years on, the GCP continues to work with the international community to lead and promote a coordinated research effort. The brochure "10 Years of Advancing Knowledge on the Global Carbon Cycle and its Management" summarises some of the achievements of these first ten years.