5-Apr-2023: Rise in Global Temperature

In a report by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that the population of insects is expected to increase around the world due global warming/rise in temperature. Temperature regulates insects’ physiology and metabolism. An increase in temperature increases physiological activity and, therefore, metabolic rates. Insects must eat more to survive and it’s expected that insect herbivores will consume more and grow faster. This will lead to increases in the population growth rate of certain insects. Because they grow fast they’ll reproduce more. Their numbers will multiply and this will ultimately lead to more crop damage.

Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) doesn’t have any centralized data on the details of diseases expected to be spread as a result of increase in population of insects.  However, India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues agro meteorological advisories through Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) scheme for the benefit of farming community in the country. Presently Agromet advisories are being prepared on every Tuesday and Friday for all the agriculturally important districts (~700) and around 3100 blocks by 130 Agromet Field Units (AMFUs) and 199 District Agromet Units (DAMUs). These advisories also include the information regarding pests and diseases which affect agriculture.  Also Pest-Weather calendars are prepared for every crop which could be used as reference tools.

There has been a continuous global effort to control/arrest the global warming trends through various means. IMD under this ministry, issues forecast and warnings related to severe weather events including heat waves, in different spatial and temporal scales and share the same with public as well as disaster management authorities so as to initiate required mitigation measures.

As an initiative IMD is issuing Seasonal Outlook for temperatures for the months of April, May & June in the last week of March for planning purpose. This outlook brings out the expected scenario of heat waves also during the period. The seasonal outlook is followed by Extended Range Outlook issued on every Thursday for next two weeks. In addition to this, the forecast and the colour coded warnings for severe weather including heat wave warning are issued on daily basis for next five days with outlook for another two days.

As an adaptive measure, India Meteorological Department (IMD) in collaboration with local health departments have started heat action plan in many parts of the country since 2013 to forewarn people about the heat waves and also advising action to be taken during such occasions. Heat Action Plan, implemented in 23 States in collaboration with National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), is a comprehensive early warning system and preparedness plan for extreme heat events. The Plan presents immediate as well as longer-term actions to increase preparedness, information-sharing, and response coordination to reduce the health impacts of extreme heat on vulnerable populations.

2-Feb-2023: Planet likely to warm up by 2°C by 2050

The findings of a research, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on January 30, 2023, contradicted projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). IPCC predicted that the world will likely warm up by 2°C by 2050 only under a high-emission scenario.

The researchers used artificial intelligence called Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict the time for reaching the 1.5 °C and 2°C thresholds. The world has recorded a 1.1°C rise in temperature compared with the average in 1850-1900.

Projections

  • Higher likelihood of reaching 2°C under low-emission scenario compared with IPCC AR6
  • IPCC estimated 1.5°C threshold could be reached as early as the 2030s under all emission scenarios
  • Threshold of 1.5°C to be reached between 2033-2035 in high, intermediate, and low forcing scenarios
  • World could touch 2°C by 2050 under high-emission scenario, 2049 and 2054 in intermediate and low-emission scenarios respectively.
  • IPCC estimated likelihood of touching 2°C of global warming during mid-21st century is high under high-emission scenario.

Importance of Limiting Warming:

  • Limiting warming to 1.5°C can reduce the number of people frequently exposed to extreme heat waves by about 420 million.
  • It can also reduce the probability of drought and risks related to water availability.

Implications of Global Warming: Warming above 1.5°C threshold can cause a broad range of climate risks affecting human health, economic growth, crop yields, coastal and small island communities, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, as well as the frequency, intensity, and cost of extreme climate events.

Artificial Neural Networks:

  • Subset of machine learning that helps computer scientists in complex tasks like strategizing, making predictions, and recognizing trends.
  • Computational model that mimics the way nerve cells work in the human brain.
  • Designed to simulate the way the human brain analyzes and processes information.

5-Apr-2023: Rise in Global Temperature

In a report by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that the population of insects is expected to increase around the world due global warming/rise in temperature. Temperature regulates insects’ physiology and metabolism. An increase in temperature increases physiological activity and, therefore, metabolic rates. Insects must eat more to survive and it’s expected that insect herbivores will consume more and grow faster. This will lead to increases in the population growth rate of certain insects. Because they grow fast they’ll reproduce more. Their numbers will multiply and this will ultimately lead to more crop damage.

Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) doesn’t have any centralized data on the details of diseases expected to be spread as a result of increase in population of insects.  However, India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues agro meteorological advisories through Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) scheme for the benefit of farming community in the country. Presently Agromet advisories are being prepared on every Tuesday and Friday for all the agriculturally important districts (~700) and around 3100 blocks by 130 Agromet Field Units (AMFUs) and 199 District Agromet Units (DAMUs). These advisories also include the information regarding pests and diseases which affect agriculture.  Also Pest-Weather calendars are prepared for every crop which could be used as reference tools.

There has been a continuous global effort to control/arrest the global warming trends through various means. IMD under this ministry, issues forecast and warnings related to severe weather events including heat waves, in different spatial and temporal scales and share the same with public as well as disaster management authorities so as to initiate required mitigation measures.

As an initiative IMD is issuing Seasonal Outlook for temperatures for the months of April, May & June in the last week of March for planning purpose. This outlook brings out the expected scenario of heat waves also during the period. The seasonal outlook is followed by Extended Range Outlook issued on every Thursday for next two weeks. In addition to this, the forecast and the colour coded warnings for severe weather including heat wave warning are issued on daily basis for next five days with outlook for another two days.

As an adaptive measure, India Meteorological Department (IMD) in collaboration with local health departments have started heat action plan in many parts of the country since 2013 to forewarn people about the heat waves and also advising action to be taken during such occasions. Heat Action Plan, implemented in 23 States in collaboration with National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), is a comprehensive early warning system and preparedness plan for extreme heat events. The Plan presents immediate as well as longer-term actions to increase preparedness, information-sharing, and response coordination to reduce the health impacts of extreme heat on vulnerable populations.

2-Feb-2023: Planet likely to warm up by 2°C by 2050

The findings of a research, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on January 30, 2023, contradicted projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). IPCC predicted that the world will likely warm up by 2°C by 2050 only under a high-emission scenario.

The researchers used artificial intelligence called Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict the time for reaching the 1.5 °C and 2°C thresholds. The world has recorded a 1.1°C rise in temperature compared with the average in 1850-1900.

Projections

  • Higher likelihood of reaching 2°C under low-emission scenario compared with IPCC AR6
  • IPCC estimated 1.5°C threshold could be reached as early as the 2030s under all emission scenarios
  • Threshold of 1.5°C to be reached between 2033-2035 in high, intermediate, and low forcing scenarios
  • World could touch 2°C by 2050 under high-emission scenario, 2049 and 2054 in intermediate and low-emission scenarios respectively.
  • IPCC estimated likelihood of touching 2°C of global warming during mid-21st century is high under high-emission scenario.

Importance of Limiting Warming:

  • Limiting warming to 1.5°C can reduce the number of people frequently exposed to extreme heat waves by about 420 million.
  • It can also reduce the probability of drought and risks related to water availability.

Implications of Global Warming: Warming above 1.5°C threshold can cause a broad range of climate risks affecting human health, economic growth, crop yields, coastal and small island communities, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, as well as the frequency, intensity, and cost of extreme climate events.

Artificial Neural Networks:

  • Subset of machine learning that helps computer scientists in complex tasks like strategizing, making predictions, and recognizing trends.
  • Computational model that mimics the way nerve cells work in the human brain.
  • Designed to simulate the way the human brain analyzes and processes information.

2022

28-Mar-2022: Effects of Global Warming on Maritime Flora and Fauna

Impact of climate change on water bodies is a dynamic process and quantum of this impact varies from time to time due to variable nature of climatic conditions. While country-wide assessment has not been performed to examine the impacts of climate change on soil erosion and sedimentation, there are studies conducted at the river basin scales in different regions of India that suggest an increase in soil erosion and sedimentation due to climate change. The observed and projected increase in erosion is mainly due to increase in heavy rainfall events and associated floods in the observed and projected future climate.

Further, various agencies of the Government of India undertake research and development studies on the effect of climate change on various dimensions of water from time to time depending upon the prevailing conditions gauging the systematic linkages between climate and water. 

The National Hydrology Project is being implemented which has resulted in improved extent, quality and accessibility of water resources information and strengthened the capacity of water resources management institutions in India. For the implementation of this project, modern technologies like Lidar mapping, Real Time Data Acquisition System through telemetry, Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system for Water Resources management and advanced information technology-based information system were used.

The Central and State Governments take all possible steps for the preservation, conservation and management of water bodies (including lakes, wetlands etc.) in the country which inter-alia include Jal Shakti Abhiyan (JSA) started in 2019, a time bound campaign with a mission mode approach intended to improve water availability in the water stressed blocks of 256 districts in India, Namami Gange Programme for conservation of river Ganga, notification of the Wetlands (Conservation and Management) Rules, 2017 for protection, conservation and management of wetlands, etc.

As per the Special Report on ‘The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate’ released in September 2019 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), since about 1950 many marine species across various groups have undergone shifts in geographical range and seasonal activities in response to ocean warming, sea ice change and biogeochemical changes, such as oxygen loss, to their habitats. This has resulted in shifts in species composition, abundance and biomass production of ecosystems, from the equator to the poles. However, in some marine ecosystems, species are impacted by both the effects of fishing and climate changes. The report also states that the coastal ecosystem is affected by ocean warming, including intensified marine heat waves, acidification, loss of oxygen, salinity intrusions and sea level rise, in combination with adverse effects from human activities on ocean and land.

As per information provided by the Indian Space Research Organization, a long-term study was carried out (1982-2018) on five major coral reef regions of India based on the modelled and satellite derived Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). The study found that Indian coral reef regions have different regional, thermal and bleaching thresholds corresponding to their individual warmest months and warmest quarters. A prototype coral bleaching alert system based on these regional thresholds has also been developed and hosted at VEDAS geoportal (vedas.sac.isro.gov.in).

Time series data on sea surface temperature and the abundance of green microscopic plants in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal was obtained from satellite data during 2003-2019. Analysis long-term data showed a significant change in sea surface temperature since 2014. The southern area of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal showed sea surface temperature above the long term mean. The years 2015 and 2016,had the warmest sea surface temperatures in the region. Correspondingly, the production of green microscopic plants (estimated as concentration of chlorophyll - a pigment) as revealed from chlorophyll images decreased below the long term and was lowest during 2015-2016. These years also corresponded to the strongest El-Niño years of the decade.

Further, Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI) has also been entrusted to carry out the climate change impact studies on Indian marine fisheries sector through multiple projects viz ‘National network project on climate change’ (2004-2007), ‘National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture’ (NICRA) (2010-2020) funded by Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), and the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change funded project entitled ‘Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies for Marine Fisheries of India’ (2017-2020). The preliminary investigations reveal strong correlations of sea surface temperature change with abundance of marine plankton species, fish eggs and larvae. The studies of marine fauna reveal that variations in oceanographic parameters- sea surface temperature, current speed, wind and rainfall, etc. do have influence on the food and feeding, maturity and spawning, distribution range, abundance and catch of several marine fish species.

24-Mar-2022: Unusual rise in temperature due to climate change 

Climate Change is a global collective action problem which has precipitated mainly due to historical, cumulative emissions by the developed countries arising from the disproportionate and excessive production and consumption. The advances in the science of climate change is periodically assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC Sixth Assessment Working Group I report points to three major facts: First, that global average temperature has already risen by 1.07 degree C since pre-industrial times. Second, we only have a certain amount of carbon budget left before we reach the temperature limits of 1.5 degree C and 2 degree C mentioned in the Paris Agreement. And third, historical cumulative emissions are an important determinant of current climate change. Carbon budget is the cumulative amount of carbon dioxide emissions permitted since the pre-industrial era to keep the increase in global average temperature, over pre-industrial levels, within a certain limit. For 1.5 degree C warming, 83% of carbon budget is already taken up by historic cumulative emissions until 2019. So, for a temperature target of 1.5 degree C increase, there is only 500 Gt of carbon dioxide that the world can emit. Compared to what has been emitted thus far, this is quite small. While for 2 degree C, 65% is taken up by historic cumulative emissions and 35% remains for the whole world.

India with more than 17% of the global population has contributed only about 4% of the global cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between 1850 and 2019. India firmly believes in global cooperation to deal with the challenge of climate change through multilateral processes on the basis of the principles of equity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC). Hence all countries must keep their emissions to their fair share of the global carbon budget and use it responsibly. At the same time, technological development is needed globally to move to a low-carbon development pathway while the excessive and unsustainable lifestyles of the developed countries must be immediately curbed and transformed. Simultaneously, development and adaptation is necessary to manage the impact of the climate change that is already taking place.

The Government is seized of the matter. Studies show that average temperature over India has warmed around 0.7˚C during 1901-2018 and similar warming has been observed in the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean by 1˚C for 1951-2015. The rise in temperature is gradual. The rise in extreme events is attributed to the complex earth system interactions due to global warming and regional anthropogenic influences.

Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has the mandate to provide forecasts and early warnings. However, as an adaptive measure to minimize the effects of increasing temperatures, India Meteorological Department (IMD) in collaboration with local health departments have started heat action plan in many parts of the country to forewarn about the heat waves and also advising action to be taken during such occasions.  Heat action plan became operational since 2013. National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and IMD are working with 23 states prone to high temperatures at present with respect to heat action plan.

The monitoring of glaciers is pursued by the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Geological Survey of India (GSI), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Defence Geo informatics Research Establishment (DGRE), and also through various research projects sponsored by the Department of Science and Technology (DST). The latter also has an autonomous institution on Himalayan Geology, namely, the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun. The Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 477 glacial lakes and water bodies in the Himalayan Region of the Indian river basin system, having an area of more than 50 hectares on a monthly basis in the monsoon season since 2011. Further, the National Disaster Management Authority has issued guidelines titled “Management of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)” in October 2020, which inter-alia includes a discussion on early warning systems.

The Government is implementing the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), which is the overarching policy framework for climate action in India, covering mitigation, adaptation and generation of strategic knowledge on climate change. It comprises of national missions in the specific areas of solar energy, enhanced energy efficiency, water, agriculture, the Himalayan eco-system, sustainable habitat, green India and strategic knowledge on climate change. Further, 33 States/Union Territories have prepared State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs) consistent with the objectives of NAPCC.The Government is also implementing the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change to support adaptation measures of States/UTs in areas that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. A number of other measures are taken, keeping in view the threat of climate change, by various departments, ministries and entities of the Government, as part of their regular mandated activities and responsibilities. These are periodically shared with all stakeholders and the world through India’s National Communications and Biennial Update Reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

2021

16-Dec-2021: Assessment of the impact of global warming

The Government has been assessing climate change over the years through various Ministries and Agencies. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) brings out the publication ‘Annual Climate Summary’ at the end of every year that features highlights of climate patterns and long-term changes since the year 1901 in all-India temperature and rainfall at annual and seasonal scales. Climate change is a global collective action problem. As per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report titled, “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis”, global warming of approximately 1.07°C has already occurred in the decade 2010-2019 since 1850-1900.According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the surface air temperature over India has risen by about 0.7°C during 1901–2018.

Reports from various sources including IPCC highlight that the challenges faced due to global warming are mainly due to cumulative historical and current greenhouse gas emissions of the developed countries. India with more than 17 % of global population has contributed only about 4 % of the global cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between 1850 and 2017.

It may also be noted that the work of scientists on global warming and its impact provides us projections and not forecasts. If the developed countries duly fulfil their responsibilities and commitments for mitigation, adaptation and support in finance, technology and capacity building then both the extent of global warming and its impacts can be reduced.

Since climate change is a global collective action problem, India firmly believes in global cooperation to deal with the challenge through multilateral processes. India is a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and its Kyoto Protocol (KP), and the Paris Agreement (PA). Even though, India is not part of the problem, it is part of the solution, and has done far more than its fair share in addressing the climate change.

The Government of India stands committed to combating climate change through its several programmes and schemes including the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) which comprises missions in specific areas of solar energy, energy efficiency, water, sustainable agriculture, Himalayan ecosystem, sustainable habitat, green India, and strategic knowledge for climate change. The NAPCC provides an overarching framework for all climate actions. Thirty-three States /Union Territories (UTs) have prepared their State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) in line with NAPCC taking into account the State-specific issues relating to climate change. These SAPCCs outline sector-specific and cross-sectoral priority actions, including adaptation.

The Government is also implementing National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change to support adaptation measures of States/UTs in areas that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change.

9-Dec-2021: Impact of Global Warming on Atmosphere

The number of Cyclones and Number of stations reported very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall events have increased in recent years. Also the analysis of past data of cyclones over North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) during the period from 1891 to 2020 indicates that, frequency of Very Severe Cyclonic Storms has increased in recent few years over the Arabian Sea. However, the coastal vulnerability to the categories of Extremely Severe Cyclones is more continues over the Bay of Bengal region, as there is no significant trend in the frequency of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storms (ESCS). On the other hand, the increase in frequency over the Arabian Sea has not posed a corresponding increase in the coastal vulnerability along the west coast since most of such Cyclones forming over the Arabian Sea are making landfall over the coasts of Oman, Yemen etc. and hence the threat to Gujarat & Maharashtra coasts remains same. On an average, out of 5 Cyclones developing over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) comprising Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, about 3 to 4 of them make landfall causing loss of life and property. Low lying coastal belts of West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu & Puducherry are more prone to the impact of these systems. The number of deaths due to cyclones has decreased significantly, as a result of the improvement in the early warning skill by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and effective mitigation measures and response actions by National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). Still there is huge loss to property.

Oxygen makes up one-fifth of the air we breathe, and few recent studies reported declining oxygen content in the atmosphere due to burning of fossil fuels, population growth and deforestation. However, the loss of oxygen is negligible when compared to its abundance in the atmosphere and it is also found that the ecosystem is compensating for some of the loss.

Ministry of Earth Sciences has the mandate only to provide forecasts and early warnings. However, as an adaptive measure to minimize the effects of increasing temperatures, IMD in collaboration with local health departments have started heat action plan in many parts of the country to forewarn about the heat waves and also advising action to be taken during such occasions.  Heat action plan became operational since 2013.

The Heat Action Plan is a comprehensive early warning system and preparedness plan for extreme heat events. The Plan presents immediate as well as longer-term actions to increase preparedness, information-sharing, and response coordination to reduce the health impacts of extreme heat on vulnerable populations. NDMA and IMD are working with 23 states prone to high temperatures at present with respect to heat action plan.

IMD has started Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) on heat waves from April 2017 for the hot weather season under which a detailed daily report including realized data of heat waves, weather systems leading to the occurrence of heat waves, diagnosis on the basis of Numerical Model outputs and forecast and warnings for five days is prepared. This bulletin is disseminated to all concerned including health departments.

From April 2018 onwards, IMD started issuing an additional bulletin on heat wave in the morning (08 a.m.) valid for 24 hours to support the planning of activities for the day and this bulletin is also disseminated to all concerned. All these bulletins are posted to IMD website also, on a special page created for heat waves.

2-Dec-2021: Study of Impact of Global Warming

Central Ground Water Board (CGWB), under the Ministry of Jal Shakti, Department of Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation is periodically monitoring the ground water levels throughout the Country on a regional scale, through a network of monitoring wells.

The Dynamic Ground Water Resources of the country are also being periodically assessed jointly by CGWB and State Governments. As per the 2017 assessment, out of the total 6881 assessment units (Block/ Taluks/ Mandals/ watersheds/ Firkas) in the country, 1186 units in 17 States/UTs have been categorized as ‘Over-exploited’ where the total Current Annual Ground Water Extraction is more than Annual Extractable Ground Water Resource.

Central Ground Water Board is implementing a nationwide programme of “National Aquifer Mapping and Management (NAQUIM)” for mapping of aquifers (Water bearing formations), their characterization and development of aquifer management plans to facilitate sustainable development of ground water resources. So far about 11 lakhs sq.km have been covered. Aquifer maps and management plans have been shared with the respective State Government agencies. Public Interaction Programs are being organised at grass root level for disseminating the tenets of the Aquifer Management Plans for the benefit of the stakeholders.

The Research & Development Division, Project Planning Wing, Department of Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation wing of Central Water Commission (CWC) have awarded studies on impact of climate change on water resources to some of the premier educational institutes. The studies are being implemented under the supervision of Indian National Committee on Climate Change (INCCC).

Sl. No.

Name of the Study

Name of the Institute

1

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Hydro-meteorological processes and water resources of Mahanadi basin

IISc Bangalore &

 IIT Bhubaneswar

2

Climate Change Impact Studies for Rajasthan (Area of Inland Drainage and Mahi Basin)

MNIT Jaipur, IIT Delhi &

Central University, Rajasthan

3

Luni River Basin Climate and Hydrological Modelling

IIT Jodhpur

4

Impact of Climate Change on water resources of Tapi Basin

SVNIT Surat, MNIT Jaipur & MANIT Bhopal

5

Impact of Climate Change on water resources of Sabarmati Basin

IIT Gandhinagar and

SVNIT Surat

6

Impact of Climate Change on water resources in River Basins from Tadri to Kanyakumari

IIT Mumbai, NIT Surathkal &

CWRDM Kozhikode

7

Effects of Climate Change and land use/land cover changes on spatial and temporal water availability in Subarnarekha basin

IIT Kharagpur