Changing political dynamics in Eurasia

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19-Jan-2023: Changing dynamics in Indo-Pacific and Eurasia

Eurasia is a term used to describe the vast landmass that connects Europe and Asia, but with no shared international understanding of the region's political boundaries. There is a reconfiguration of old and new fault lines due to the changing dynamics in Indo-Pacific and Eurasia as a response to the emergence of a 'new normal'.

New Geopolitical Dynamics in Eurasia:

  • Japan is working to establish strong military relationships with European countries.
  • South Korea is also seeking to increase its presence in Europe through weapons sales in Poland.
  • Australia is working to bring Europe into the Indo-Pacific through the AUKUS (Australia, the UK, and the US) arrangement.
  • This process has been expedited by the conflict in Ukraine and Russia's alliance with China.

China and Russia's Impact on Eurasia:

  • Alliance "without limits" and "no forbidden areas", was an agreement signed by Russia and China declaring an alliance without limitations and without any restrictions.
  • China has been successfully cultivating Europe since the 1990s.
  • China has deliberately avoided choosing sides in the conflict between Europe and Russia.

Other Countries' Eurasian Policies:

  • The United States has primarily focused on the western Pacific and the South China Sea, but has started to rethink its commitments to Eurasia due to mounting challenges from China.
  • The United States and the European Union are engaging in discussions to rebalance their shared defense responsibilities.
  • China has become a major player in Eurasia due to its growing assertiveness, expanding economic power, and rising political influence.
  • Beijing's growing strategic assertiveness and political influence is demonstrated by China's approach to its border with Bhutan and India, quest for a security presence in Tajikistan, larger role in Afghanistan, and greater say in the sub-Himalayan region. Expansion of Belt and Road Initiative has given it additional leverage in Eurasia.
  • China's alliance with Russia has become stronger, spanning the heart of Eurasia.

Russia

  • Russia sees itself as a European and Asian power, but has struggled to become part of either.
  • In an effort to counterbalance Western global hegemony, Russia and China have formed an alliance known as Eurasia.
  • The annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine are motivated by President Putin's goal to reunite the "Russkiy Mir".
  • After failed efforts to integrate with the West in the 2000s, Russia developed new geopolitical constructs of "Eurasia" and "Greater Eurasia".

India's Eurasian Policy

  • India's National Security Advisor invited regional leaders to attend a regional security dialogue on Afghanistan as a part of developing a Eurasian strategy.
  • However, Pakistan and China did not attend, revealing ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan in shaping a new Eurasian strategy.
  • This highlights the urgency for India to develop its own strategy for engaging with Eurasia.

International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)

  • INSTC is a transportation cooperation initiative established by Iran, Russia, and India to promote closer connections in Eurasia.
  • The initiative has since expanded to include 11 new members.

Challenges and Potential

  • India's rise of Eurasia is making it difficult to balance both its maritime and continental strategies.
  • The conflict between the US, Europe, and Japan and China and Russia is exacerbating this challenge.
  • India faces security challenges from China and a tightening embrace between Moscow and Beijing.
  • However, there are also opportunities for India to strengthen its strategic capabilities through partnerships with the US, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

India needs to focus on developing its own Eurasian policy with the same level of energy as Japan and South Korea. India needs to recalibrate its continental strategy and adopt an integrated approach to establish a strong foothold in Eurasia.

India may face contradictions in its path, but it should not let these hold it back. Greater strategic activism is the key for India to open up opportunities in all directions in Eurasia.