31-Jan-2022: First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation, 2020-21
The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is, in this press note, releasing the (i) First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2020-21 along with (ii) Second Revised Estimates for the financial year 2019-20 and (iii) Third Revised Estimates for the financial year 2018-19 (with Base Year 2011-12) as per the revision policy* of national accounts. Earlier estimates for 2011-12 to 2019-20 were released vide Press Note dated 29th January, 2021 and Provisional Estimates of financial year 2020-21 were released on 31st May, 2021.
The First Revised Estimates for the year 2020-21 have been compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of using the benchmark-indicator method employed at the time of release of Provisional Estimates on 31st May, 2021. The estimates of GDP and other aggregates for the years 2018-19 and 2019-20 have also undergone revisions on account of use of latest available datasets on agricultural production; industrial production (final results of ASI: 2018-19); government data as available in budget documents (replacing Revised Estimates with actuals for the year 2019-20); comprehensive data available from various source agencies like Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA), Reserve Bank of India (RBI), National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) etc. and additional data from State/UT Directorates of Economics and Statistics (DES).
The salient features of the revised estimates at aggregate level are given in the paras that follow.
Gross Domestic Product
- Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2020-21 is estimated at ₹198.01 lakh crore as against ₹200.75 lakh crore for the year 2019-20, showing a contraction of 1.4 per cent during 2020-21 as compared to growth of 6.2 per cent during 2019-20.
- Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2020-21 and 2019-20 stands at ₹135.58 lakh crore and ₹145.16 lakh crore, respectively, showing a contraction of 6.6 per cent during 2020-21 as compared to growth of 3.7 per cent during 2019-20.
GVA and its Industry-wise Analysis
At the aggregate level, nominal GVA at basic prices has declined by 1.6 per cent during 2020-21 against the growth of 6.9 per cent during 2019-20. In terms of real GVA, i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices, there has been a contraction of 4.8 per cent in 2020-21, as against growth of 3.8 per cent in 2019-20.
The growth rates of Primary sector (comprising Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Mining & Quarrying), Secondary sector (comprising Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services, and Construction) and Tertiary sector (Services) have been estimated as 1.6 per cent, -2.8 per cent and -7.8 in 2020-21 as against a growth of 4.5 per cent, -1.4 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively, in the previous year. The contraction in real GVA during 2020-21 is on account of contraction in ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Manufacturing’, ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’, ‘Construction’, ‘Trade, repair, Hotels and Restaurants’, ‘Transport’ and ‘Other services’ as may be seen from Statement 4.2. However, ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Communication & Services related to Broadcasting’, ‘Financial Services’, ‘Real Estate, Ownership of Dwelling & Professional Services’ and ‘Public Administration and Defence’ have witnessed modest growth during this period.
Net National Income: Nominal Net National Income (NNI) or NNI at current prices for the year 2020-21 stands at ₹171.94 lakh crore as against ₹177.17 lakh crore in 2019-20, showing a contraction of 2.9 per cent during 2020-21 as against growth of 6.0 per cent in the previous year.
Gross National Disposable Income: Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated at ₹200.86 lakh crore for the year 2020-21, while the estimate for the year 2019-20 stands at ₹204.22 lakh crore, showing a contraction of 1.6 per cent for year 2020-21 as against growth of 6.4 per cent in the year 2019-20.
Saving: Gross Saving during 2020-21 is estimated at ₹55.92 lakh crore against ₹59.96 lakh crore during 2019-20. Share of Non-financial corporations, Financial corporations, General Government and Household sectors in Gross Savings during 2020-21 stands at 35.6%, 10.0%, (-) 24.1% and 78.5% respectively. Rate of Gross Saving to GNDI for 2020-21 is estimated at 27.8 per cent as against 29.4 per cent for 2019-20.
Capital Formation: Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated at ₹54.03 lakh crore for the year 2020-21 as compared to ₹61.61 lakh crore during 2019-20. The rate of GCF to GDP is 27.3 per cent during 2020-21 as against 30.7 per cent in the 2019-20. The rates of capital formation in the years 2011-12 to 2019-20 have been higher than the rate of saving because of positive net capital flow from RoW. The rate of GCF to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices was 34.1 per cent in 2019-20 and 31.5 per cent in 2020-21. In terms of the share to the total GFCF (at current prices), the highest contributor is Non-Financial Corporations followed by Household sector, share of which stood at 43.9 % and 38.9 % respectively in 2020-21.
Consumption Expenditure: Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at ₹120.33 lakh crore for the year 2020-21 as against ₹122.37 lakh crore in 2019-20. In relation to GDP, the rates of PFCE to GDP at current prices during 2019-20 and 2020-21 are 61.0 per cent and 60.8 per cent respectively. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at ₹82.60 lakh crore and ₹77.64 lakh crore, respectively, for the years 2019-20 and 2020-21. The corresponding rates of PFCE to GDP for the years 2019-20 and 2020-21 are 56.9 per cent and 57.3 per cent respectively. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at ₹23.93 lakh crore for the year 2020-21 as against ₹22.01 lakh crore during 2019-20. At constant (2011-12) prices the estimates of GFCE for the years 2019-20 and 2020-21 stand at ₹14.84 lakh crore and ₹15.38 lakh crore respectively.
Per Capita Estimates: Per Capita Income i.e. Per Capita Net National Income at current prices is estimated at ₹1,32,115 and ₹1,26,855 respectively for the years 2019-20 and 2020-21. Per Capita PFCE at current prices for the years 2019-20 and 2020-21 is estimated at ₹91,254 and ₹88,775 respectively.
Reason(s) for revisions in the estimates of the years 2018-19 and 2019-20: The use of latest available data from various agencies has resulted in some changes in both the levels of GVA and growth estimates for the years 2018-19 and 2019-20.
Major reasons for revisions in GVA/GDP estimates are as given below:
Year 2018-19
- Use of updated estimates of production and prices of some crops, livestock products, fish and forestry products from few States & DESs.
- Use of final results of ASI: 2018-19 in place of provisional results.
- Use of latest survey result of All India Debt & Investment Survey and analysis of latest reports of few NBFIs/ financial auxiliaries
- Use of updated information received from state governments and local bodies.
Year 2019-20
- Use of updated estimates of production and prices of some crops, livestock products, fish and forestry products from a few states and DESs.
- Use of augmented data for non-financial private corporate sector.
- Use of ‘Actuals’ in place of “Revised Estimates” of different items of expenditure and receipts in the Central & State government budgets.
- Use of updated information on Local Bodies & Autonomous Institutions.
- Use of latest annual reports of Public Sector Enterprises.
- Use of latest data received for Cooperative Banks, Postal Life Insurance (PLI) & Post Office Saving Bank (POSB), Non-Banking Financial Institutions (NBFIs), Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) and Financial Auxiliaries.