30-Jan-2023: UN releases World Economic Situation and Prospects 2023

Major findings:

• Global Gross Domestic Product likely to drop to 1.9% in 2023 from 3% in 2022.
• Causes: Covid-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, food and energy crises, inflation, and climate emergency.
• Inflation rate at 9% in 2022, leading to budgetary constraints in developed and developing countries.
• Downturn slowed economic recovery from Covid-19, leading to recession in some countries.
• Most developing countries saw slower job recovery in 2022.
• Disproportionate job losses for women during the pandemic have not been fully reversed.
• World output growth can bounce back to 2.7% in 2024, subject to changes in war and supply chains.
• China projected to grow at 4.8% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024, while the US is estimated to grow at 0.4% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2024.
• Russian exports increased due to surging trade with China, India, and Turkey.
• South Asia's economic outlook has deteriorated due to high food and energy prices, monetary tightening, and fiscal vulnerabilities.

India's prospects:

• India's growth rate expected to remain strong at 5.8% in 2023, slightly lower than the estimated 6.4% in 2022.
• Indian food and energy subsidies prevented a major downfall, and India is projected to grow at 6.7% in 2024.
• Annual inflation estimated at 7.1% in 2022, expected to decelerate to 5.5% in 2023.
• Unemployment rate in 2022 declined to pre-pandemic levels, but youth employment remained below pre-pandemic levels, particularly among young women.

Recommendations:

• Calibrate macroeconomic policies to balance stimulating output and taming inflation, with effective coordination among major central banks.
• Avoid de-anchoring of inflation expectations while reforming existing frameworks.
• Reprioritize public expenditures to support vulnerable groups, strengthen social protection systems, and ensure continued support through targeted and temporary subsidies.
• Stronger international commitment is urgently needed to expand access to emergency financial assistance and scale up SDG financing.

17-Jan-2023: Oxfam’s Report “Survival of the Richest: The India Story”

The richest 1% in India own more than 40% of the country’s total wealth

Bottom half of the population share just 3% of wealth between 2012 and 2021

Taxing India's ten-richest individuals at 5% could generate enough money to bring children back to school

Gender Inequality: Female workers earned only 63 paise for every 1 rupee earned by male workers

Social Inequality:

• Marginalized communities such as Dalits, Adivasis, Muslims, Women, and informal sector workers are suffering
• Poor in India are paying disproportionately higher taxes

Suggested Measures to Combat Inequality:

• Implement inheritance, property and land taxes, as well as net wealth taxes
• Enhance budgetary allocation for the health sector to 2.5% of GDP by 2025
• Enhance budgetary allocation for education to the global benchmark of 6% of GDP
• Urged higher taxes on the rich
• Windfall taxes for food companies making large profits

Sources for Data:

• Forbes and Credit Suisse for information on wealth inequality and billionaire wealth
• Government sources like the National Sample Survey (NSS), Union budget documents, and parliamentary questions

Windfall Tax:

• Taxes imposed on unexpected or extraordinary profits
• Levied one-off tax retrospectively over and above the normal rates of tax on such profits

Oxfam International:

• Confederation of 21 independent charitable organizations
• Mission is to end the injustices that cause poverty
  • Find practical, innovative ways for people to lift themselves out of poverty and thrive
  • Save lives and help rebuild livelihoods when crisis strikes
  • Campaign so that the voices of the poor influence the local and global decisions that affect them.